Tuesday, January 03, 2006

What do you leave behind?

Mark Steyn says that if you are European, not much except some old buildings. Sheesh! What a opus has Steyn written here. I could probably write something just as good as this, but it would take me a year and I'd be exhausted at the end. Steyn pumps these out on a regular basis. How does he do it? How does he write something that predicts the decline and fall of the West and not walk away totally discouraged at our prospects for survival? If I could indeed write something like this it would probably be the last thing I wrote before moving into a hut in Montana someplace to await the apocolypse.

Steyn offers a lot of numbers to support his position, like, for instance, birthrates. At 2.1 babies per woman to sustain a population, the numbers don't look good for the West.
The global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common? (Islam, and radical Islam at that.)

Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you'll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada's fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate. That's to say, Spain's population is halving every generation. By 2050, Italy's population will have fallen by 22%, Bulgaria's by 36%, Estonia's by 52%. In America, demographic trends suggest that the blue states ought to apply for honorary membership of the EU: In the 2004 election, John Kerry won the 16 with the lowest birthrates; George W. Bush took 25 of the 26 states with the highest. By 2050, there will be 100 million fewer Europeans, 100 million more Americans--and mostly red-state Americans.
What Steyn is predicting, or rather, what he allows the numbers to predict, is the death of "The West", as we have known it, by 2020 or thereabouts. It is difficult to argue with his numbers. As they say, numbers never lie. Statisticians, those who interpret the numbers, however, have been known to drown while wading across rivers that averaged 3 feet in depth. I cannot argue with Mr. Steyn's numbers nor his analysis of those numbers. They are truly discouraging.

He notes that 60% of the Muslims in Britain favor Shariah law, now. What happens when the Muslim population exceeds 50% of Britain's people? It's a democracy, right? Hello Shariah law and goodby women's rights. The only way that the Europeans, Canadians and many others can sustain a viable population is through immigration. And from where will the immigtrants come and what will be their religious philosophy? It's scary.

What Steyn has said here, in so many words, is that, by the year 2020, or therabouts, "The West" will be The United States and Australia. That's it. We'll be alone and facing a ring of nuclear-armed suicide-worshiping Muslim Mullahs bent on the destruction of English law, freedom of religion and the market driven economy that has made us what we are. And the Chinese will side with them to assure our destruction. The Chinese will be left to fight them alone, but that will be OK with Beijing. Losing a few hundred million of their citizens to assure world-wide supremacy won't bother the comrades a bit.

I'm not sure that this is a fight that we can win.

Tiger Hawk is looking at the numbers, too.
Jeff Goldstein applies Steyn's predictions to a practical matter.
Francis Porretto says, "Be afraid. Be very afraid."
Below the Beltway says, "Ignoring it is not an option."
Lavere Personal New Letters copies the entire thing.

See these related posts:
SpiritBlog, Brent's Spot, Hard Right, Mind of Mog, GavPOLITICS, IsraPundit,

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