Wednesday, August 03, 2005

It's gotta be Rudy!

Gallup says Rudy Giuliani fares the best among registered voters in head to head contests against ALL COMERS. He is viewed favorably by 64% of the voters. Gallop says that the Hildebeast and McCain had "similar" favorable ratings. The first time I read this, I understood that Gallup was claiming that Clinton's favorables (53%) and McCain's (51%) were similar to Giuliani's. I think after rereading this poorly worded section that Gallup meant that the Hildebeast's and McCain's were similar to each other.

Here is the starkest number that I see. The unfavorable ratings and the gap between favorable and unfavorable. Rudy's favorable at 64% vs unfavorable at 19% leaves a positive gap of 45 points. McCain's is 51% positive and 22% negative, for a positive gap of 29 points. The Hildebeast's is 53% positive and 43% negative for a positive gap of only 10 points. The Hildebeast has her work cut out for her. And I think that anyone considering a run for the Republican nomination against Rudy is nuts. He (or she) will come away with a bloody nose.

This poll has got me a-hoppin'. I have always strongly believed that Giuliani, especially after 9/11 (or during it), was a force to consider for the presidency. I don't hold dear to his views on abortion, but that would not be a show stopper for me. He is an accomplished pol who no doubt can figure out a way to temper his opinion or at least explain it in a manner that will mollify the bulk of the Republican base.

Oh yeah, Gallup threw John Kerry into the mix. His numbers are as laughable as his 2004 campaign. Gallup must have done this for the comic relief.

Others who are a-hoppin':
Joe Gandelman: Thinks they should have included Kucinich. For some slapstick?
The Captain: Forgets about the "No Opinion" numbers. The Captain suggests other front runners, like Bredesen, Warner, Allen, Santorum or Jeb Bush. I think that the most common answer the pollsters would receive about these guys is, "Who?"
Gerry Daly: "Some quick calculations on their numbers suggests that the sample of registered voters is showing about a 5-6 point party self-identification advantage for the Democrats at this time." Yeah, well, they did all the polling in downtown Cleveland, so what did you expect?
Dean Esmay: Agrees with Mark in Mexico and throws in Rice as VP making ticket unbeatable anywhere except Teheran and Paris. "Only his pro-choice stance on abortion would be a sticking point to his getting the 2008 Presidential nomination, although I frankly think there are ways he can address that (basically by staking out a federalist position on it)." Say, there, Dean-o, what exactly is the federalist position on abortion, anyway?
A. K. McClure at PoliPundit: "Please note the favorable/unfavorable rating for the leading Democratic contender. You will see those numbers widely circulated in media outlets, I’m sure." Yep, me, too. By about Christmas.
Orrin Judd: Thinks McCain is home free. I have to disagree. If Giuliani decides that this is something he wants and makes an early commitment (in secret) to Rice to keep her away from McCain, then the fight is on and I would predict that Giuliani wins. Try this...just before the start of the primaries, Bush lets Rice go and she hits the trail for Giuliani. Now who is home free?

Also reporting. The New Editor,

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