The 300 federal election District Committees are reporting their vote package counts. Remember, they are not counting vote by vote. The votes from each casilla (poll) are sealed in "paquetes" and may not be opened except in 4 very special cases. More on that later. 30 such paquetes have been opened in the Mexico City District and those ballots are being counted vote by vote. There are 300 Districts that must check their paquetes and report.
9:21 PM: This Reuters report is not correct. This is NOT a recount. This is a review of the Actas (tallies) that accompany the ballets which are in sealed paquetes (packages) and, by law, MAY NOT BE OPENED, except as follows:
1. The Acta (tally from the vote counters at the polls) presented with the paquete does not match the Acta which was sent ahead to the IFE in Mexico City. In other words, there are two different Actas.
2. There is no Acta at all accompanying the paquete.
3. The Acta shows evidence that it has been altered in some manner
4. The sealed paquete which contains the ballots shows evidence that it has been tampered with.
The District Committees which have been tallying the Actas all day have opened about 50 of the paquetes in 3 different locations because of some abnormality. Only the ballots contained in those paquetes are being recounted.
7:30 AM: I went to bed. When I got up, here is what I found:
% counted: 99.18
Felipe Calderón: 35.77 %
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 35.42 %
difference = 0.35
So, apparently, Felipe Calderon and the PAN have retained the presidency of Mexico. The PAN has also captured the largest block in both the Mexican House and Senate, although it does not enjoy a majority in either chamber.
Calderon finally gained the advantage at about 4:00 this morning as the review of the Actas went on throughout the night and, indeed, continues even now. The large crowd of PRD followers that had been maintaining a vigil for their man AMLO outside the IFE headquarters in Mexico City have left and trudged back to their homes.
I am being told that the reason that AMLO held the lead for so long yesterday and last night was that his strongholds, like Mexico City , Mexico State, Tabasco, Oaxacca and Chiapas were finishing their reviews first and reporting them to the IFE in Mexico City. That, again, as I am told, was due to the PRD mounting challenges to almost every Acta which was being reviewed in the PAN/Calderon strongholds of Guanajuato, Jalisco and the northern states. This slowed down the reporting from the PAN dominated areas and caused their results to be posted later.
I am still amazed at the number of news reports from yesterday that insisted that this was a recount. I only found one newspaper, from Australia, that correctly reported that the process which has been taking place for the last 23 hours is the second step in a 3 step process of certifying a winner of the election.
The first part was the conteo rápido which took place after the polls closed on Sunday night. This was a ballot-by-ballot full count at each of the casillas (polls) throughout the country and was reported as a sampling of key casillas. Next, the review of the Actas has taken place over the past 23 hours. After that process is completed, the magistrate group of the IFE will review all the complaints that will be pouring in and, eventally, certify a winner.
As to a full recount, Mexican law does not allow the sealed paquetes, or packages containing the actual ballots, to be opened except as how I have described elsewhere in this post. The PRD has been demanding since Sunday night that they all be opened and a full manual recount be conducted. The PAN announced late last night that it would be willing to accept a manual recount. Regardless of the posture of either political party towards a manual recount of the votes, Mexican law does not allow it unless the magistrates rule that it must occur. And their ruling must be based upon evidence of irregularities, paquete for paquete. I doubt that a full manual recount of 100% of the paquetes is legal and can be allowed under any circumstances.
Felipe Calderon has the lead but is not yet certified as the winner. The magistrates will now set to work. They have until August to complete their work and must certify a winner by September 6. If AMLO can be convinced to concede the election, everyone's job will be much easier. With a disadvantage of less than one half of one percent, I doubt that he will concede.
01:11 AM:
% counted 95.27
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 35.86 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.34 %
difference = 0.52
12:25 AM:
% counted 94.32
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 35.95 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.26 %
difference = 0.69
12:08 AM:
% counted 93.67
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 35.99 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.22 %
difference = 0.77
This is the biggest jump I've seen all night. The vote count percentage changed by only .47 and Calderon bit .11% out of AMLO's lead.
11:51 PM:
% counted 93.20
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.03 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.17 %
difference = 0.88%
11:40 PM:
% counted 92.69
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.07 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.15 %
difference = 0.92%
11:22 PM:
% counted 92.45
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.09 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.13 %
difference = 0.96%
11:04:
% counted 92.0
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.13 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.11 %
difference = 1.02%
11:04: Calderon is moving up quickly now.
% counted 91.71
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.15 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.09 %
difference = 1.06%
10:50 PM: Found new source, here we go:
% counted: 91.21
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.19 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.06 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.20 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.70 %
Roberto Campa: 0.95 %
10:33 PM:
Grrrrrrrr! I don't know what happened to my source at the IFE. However, I have a partial report from El Universal.
% counted: 90.89
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.22 %
Felipe Calderón: 35.04 %
AMLO's lead has shrunk to 1.22 %. I don't know if Calderon can overtake him.
10:15 PM: Well, I don't know what's happening but I havn't received a report for an hour. When I know something, you'll know it, too.
9:00 PM:
% counted: 85.98
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.47 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.79 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.19 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
8:49 PM:
% counted: 85.34
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.49 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.77 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.2 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
8:41 PM: The "actas" to which I refer are called, formally, Actas de Cómputo y Escrutinio -- just in case you were wondering.
Also, the IFE just announced that there had been no delays in the district counts due to public unrest. The IFE reminded everyone that the paquetes and the District Counts are being protected by the Mexican Army.
8:34 PM:
% counted: 84.84
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.51 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.74 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.2 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
8:25 PM:
% counted: 84.13
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.52 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.74 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.19 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
8:11 PM:
% counted: 83.53
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.55 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.73 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.18 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
7:59 PM:
The PAN has announced that it has agreed to the vote-by-vote recount of the presidential ballots. I'm not sure how this will play out because, under Mexican law, the paquetes containing the votes may only be opened under 4 conditions:
1. The Acta (tally from the vote counters at the polls) presented with the paquete does not match the Acta which was sent ahead to the IFE in Mexico City. In other words, there are two different Actas.
2. There is no Acta at all accompanying the paquete.
3. The Acta shows evidence that it has been altered in some manner
4. The sealed paquete which contains the ballots shows evidence that it has been tampered with.
These are the only 4 ways, under existing law, that the paquetes can be opened and the ballots manually recounted. I don't know what they will do now that the two major parties agree to open the paquetes and recount all the votes.
7:58 PM:
% counted: 82.46
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.6 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.71 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.15 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
Man! AMLO is looking pretty good. His lead continues to shrink but not as fast as the uncounted paquetes are shrinking.
7:42 PM:
% counted: 81.04
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.65 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.68 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.12 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
AMLO's lead has shrunk to less than 2%
7:40 PM: Things are slowing down. I don't know why. Paquetes have been opened in Baja California Sur due to "irregularities" and those ballots are being recounted vote-by-vote.
Also, in the VII District (don't ask - I don't know where that is) paquetes have also been opened and the ballots are being recounted.
7:32 PM: The PRD, which has been leading throughout the count, now says that the entire election process involving the District tabulations of the votes is a "trap" because their lead is beginning to shrink. They are demanding a vote-by-vote recount of the entire election.
7:21 PM: The PAN campaign committee says that, as of 5:30 PM, 80% of the AMLO strongholds had reported while only 57.5% of the PAN strongholds had done so. That's why, they claim, that AMLO and the PRD are ahead.
7:13 PM:
You can't find this on the net because the IFE hasn't put it there. The IFE says that, 1. They didn't plan to have to do this and, 2. They are concerned about security.
7:10 PM:
% counted: 79.21
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.71 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.65 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.1 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
AMLO's lead down to 2.06%
6:55 PM
% counted: 77.93
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.73 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.63 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.09 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
AMLO's lead has shrunk from 3% to 2.1%
6:45: PAN campaign coordinator Juan Camilo Mouriño says not to worry. The heavy PAN districts have not yet reported.
6:38:
% counted: 76.46%
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.76 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.62 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.07 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.71 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
6:24:
% counted: 75.08%
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.78 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.62 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.05 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
6:16:
% counted: 74.68
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.78 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.62 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.05 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
6:03 PM:
% counted: 73.58
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.85 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.57 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.02 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
6:01 PM: The IV District which encompasses Tobasco has finished its count. This is an AMLO stroghold (92,499 PRD to 7,298 PAN)
5:59 PM:
% counted: 72.86
Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 36.86 %
Felipe Calderón: 34.55 %
Roberto Madrazo: 22.03 %
Patricia Mercado: 2.72 %
Roberto Campa: 0.94 %
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