Thursday, July 06, 2006

Mexico election - more from AMLO

Andrés Manuel López Obrador makes more ridiculous charges:
Señaló que no hubo voluntad democrática ni del Gobierno ni de candidatos "de la derecha", por lo que, señaló, hay muchas dudas de la actuación del IFE: "yo creo que no ha actuado con rectitud."

Translation: He (AMLO) charged that neither the government nor the candidates "on the right" had any desire for a democracy", therefore, he claimed, there are many doubts about the performance by the IFE: "I believe that it (IFE) has not performed in an honest and forthright manner."
These are charges that he failed to support with any facts. He continued,
"Hubo sin duda una manipulación del PREP", reiteró el candidato de la coalición Por el Bien de Todos.

La segunda evidencia fue el manejo de las casillas que no estaban contabilizadas en los resultados preliminares.

A la hora que el IFE echa a andar el PREP tuvo que haber puesto una leyenda que informara que aparte de esas actas había 11 ó 13 mil actas que no estaban contabilizadas.

Tranlation: "Without doubt the PREP manipulated the results," repeated the candidate of the For the Good of All coalition (PRD).

The second evidence he presented was the handling of the poll results that were not included in the PREP preliminary tally.

At the time that the IFE announced the PREP results it (IFE) had to publish a disclaimer that 11 or 13,000 of those tallies were not included in the tabulatuion.
First, as to the charge that the PREP manipulated the preliminary results; So what if it did? It didn't, but, again, so what? The PREP did not begin publicizing the preliminary results until after the polls had all closed. If the PREP had announced that AMLO had been crushed 30 million to zero, it would make no difference to the certification of the winner. The PREP doesn't call the winner. The PREP's numbers are meaningless except to inform the people and the candidates what the indications and trends are from the voting. That's all it means.

Second, as to the charge that some 11-13,000 poll results that were not included in the PREP preliminary results; The PRD and the other political parties all attended a meeting with the IFE in March and all agreed to exactly how the poll results were to be handled. There was never any discussion, at least as far as I am aware, and there certainly was never any agreement to post a disclaimer about anything. The PRD and AMLO were quite happy to agree because opinion polls at that time had him in a lead over Calderon of some 10 points. Now that the only poll that counts - the election - has him trailing by half a point, this agreement by him and his party is apparently forgotten, ignored or no longer valid.
López Obrador señaló que hubo irregularidades desde el domingo en el PREP y eso se puede probar desde la manera en cómo inicia con 7% de ventaja para Felipe Calderón, "eso no es casualidad".

Translation: López Obrador charged that the PREP commited errors when it began the Sunday preliminary reporting giving Calderon a 7% advantage, "that was not by accident."
First, I saw no preliminary results on Sunday night which gave Felipe Calderon an advantage of anywhere close to 7%. I might have just missed this because, if it happened, it only lasted for a few minutes. And that is easily explained if the first polls to report to PREP had been from a PAN stronghold. If the first polls to report to PREP had been from Guanajuato, Calderon would have been shown with a 50% initial advantage. If the first polls to report to PREP had been from Mexico City, AMLO would have started out with a 75% advantage. Again, so what? The PREP preliminary tabulation does not the winner make. Nor does it influence in any way the voting, since the voting had concluded before the PREP was allowed to begin posting preliminary results.

Second, AMLO charges that the probably mythical 7% Calderon advantage was "not by accident". The PREP can easily dispute this by presenting the time log showing which polls it received and published first. That's a no-brainer and AMLO knows fully well it's a no-brainer.

The only ways that AMLO wins this is by finding some massive fraud committed somewhere in the hinterland or by a full recount that makes him the winner. I've had no further word about the report from last night that a Calderon party official had agreed to a full manual recount. I think that he may be out behind the woodshed being beaten to within an inch of his life by other members of the PAN hierarchy.

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