Thursday, July 06, 2006

Mexico election: tabulations finished, Calderon should be the winner

The District Tabulations are now concluded in Mexico's election process. With 100% of the tabulations reported, Felipe Calderon finishes with 35.88% of the vote and Andrés Manuel López Obrador finishes with 35.31, a difference of 0.57% to Calderon's favor.

These results will be passed within the IFE to the magistrates' tribunal, called the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF) where they will be reviewed for legality. The TEPJF will also adjudicate all the complaints and charges and counter-charges, so the outcome is still somewhat in doubt. AMLO has been demanding a full recount which the TEPJF can allow, but only under the most strict of circumstances. AMLO and the PRD have, so far, been demanding that the election laws be broken. I doubt that the TEPJF will permit this. The IFE has been quite right in asserting that if it allowed the sealed ballot packages to be opened, except as prescribed by law, the entire election could be annulled.

I saw a comment posted somewhere, I think at the Belmont Club, where the commenter stated that the refusal to open the paquetes and recount ballots was "wrong-headed". Sorry, but that's the law. The IFE had no authorization under the law to permit such a thing. Having said that, there were hundreds of paquetes opened at the various District Committee meetings around the country, but that was done on a case-by-case basis in strict compliance with the law.

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