Sunday, July 02, 2006

Mexico presidential election - too close to call

Update as of 7:30 am Monday morning is posted here.
TV Azteca's exit polling calls it a tie. TV Azteca won't release actual data if it falls within the margin of error (+/-1.6% -- according to TV Azteca).

I'll update this post as things develop.

UPDATE I, 8:48 pm: Per TV Azteca, with 1.04% of the vote counted, the PAN's Felipe Calderon leads AMLO 41%-33%. The PRI, party of criminals which ran this country into the ground during 71 years of uninterrupted rule (until 2000) is taking a pounding, as reflected in the gubernatorial races mentioned in the previous post (20%).

In Diputados races (the Mexican House of Representatives), the PAN leads in 36% with the PRD and PRI at 28% each.

In Senatorial races, the PAN leads with 37%, the PRD is at 28% and the PRI is at 27%.

I'll keep you posted. It is very, very early, but man, if this holds up, what a shocker. It would be akin to the Republicans holding onto their exact same margin in Congress this year and winning the presidency again in 2008. Hmmm.

UPDATE II, 9:00 pm: No change to speak of with 2.2% of the casillas (precincts, more or less) reporting, but I did want to note that turnout estimates are 57-58% of eligible voters have participated. That's juuuust a bit better than you-know-where.

UPDATE III, 9:30 pm: Ok, these numbers are directly from the IFE (Instituto Federal Electoral):
% reporting: 6.47
PAN (Calderon): 40.34
PRD (AMLO): 34.40
PRI (who cares): 18.73

PAN: 37.14
PRD: 28.54
PRI: 25.58

PAN: 36.70
PRD: 27.57
PRI: 26.11

UPDATE IV, 10:05 pm:
% reporting: 15.23
PAN (Calderon): 39.19
PRD (AMLO): 35.34
PRI (who cares): 18.81

PAN: 36.24
PRD: 29.35
PRI: 25.50

PAN: 35.84
PRD: 28.47
PRI: 25.93

UPDATE V, 10:30 pm:
% reporting: 21.59
PAN (Calderon): 38.81
PRD (AMLO): 35.55
PRI (adios!): 18.96

PAN: 35.89
PRD: 29.58
PRI: 25.57

PAN: 35.54
PRD: 28.70
PRI: 25.95

It's beginning to tighten up a bit. Has anyone else noticed something peculiar here, or is it just me? Mexico does not use any type of voting machine. In fact, they have separate ballots and separate ballot boxes for each different election taking place. Most of the polling places have at least 3 different ballot boxes this year and voters are handed 3 different ballots. A presidential ballot, a senatorial ballot and a diputado (House) ballot. The voter, after being identified with a NATIONAL VOTER ID CARD as well as verification through a computer data base, goes behind a screen, marks each ballot, walks out from behind the screen and drops the appropriate ballot into the corresponding ballot box. All very low tech-third worldly.

However, within two and 1/2 hours of the polls closing, the FEDERAL ELECTION BUREAU has already counted more than 22% of the vote and made that count public. Hmmm.

Have ya'll noticed something else? The voter turnout is now at 60%.

UPDATE VI, 11:00 pm: It's sweatin' time!
% reporting: 28.50
PAN (Calderon): 38.52
PRD (AMLO): 35.68
PRI (Hasta la vista, baby!): 19.10

PAN: 35.66
PRD: 29.69
PRI: 25.66

PAN: 35.32
PRD: 28.83
PRI: 26.02

Whew! It is beginning to really tighten up, now. A real horserace.
"And it's . . . it's . . . it's . . . Beetlebomb! But I digress. This is really going to be close. Now less than 3 percentage points separate the winner from "###### who?"

UPDATE VI, 11:30 pm: Tighter, still. Here we go; It's almost a dead heat.
% reporting: 37.06
PAN (Calderon): 38.24
PRD (AMLO): 35.77
PRI (Madrazo's massacre): 19.27

PAN: 35.43
PRD: 29.76
PRI: 25.79

PAN: 35.13
PRD: 28.94
PRI: 26.09

UPDATE VII, midnight am: Calderon's bleeding has slowed. This won't be decided for a few days, if then. The vote counting/reporting has slowed, also. I dunno why. Maybe everyone is as tired as I and wanting to go to bed. I took a little drink about an hour ago and it went right to my head. Etc.

% reporting: 45.34
turnout: 59.29

PAN (Calderon): 38.01
PRD (AMLO): 35.80
PRI (Que será es!): 19.44

PAN: 35.27
PRD: 29.81
PRI: 25.87

PAN: 34.96
PRD: 29.02
PRI: 26.16

When you have a moment, like, probably, tomorrow, read this. It's a report about Mexican illegals who were afraid to cross the border to get their voter registration cards renewed so that they could vote by absentee ballot. Money quote:
Still, many more were disenfranchised by their fear of crossing the border as undocumented residents.
I think that was supposed to read,
"Still, many more disenfranchised themselves by illegally crossing the border. Now, they are afraid to try it again just to vote in an election in country that couldn't provide them with jobs or hope and then encouraged them to leave."
I'm going to call it a night. More in the morning. Thanks for stopping by.

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