Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Oaxaca, Mexico: Governor Ruiz Ortiz will go -- or maybe not.

The last time I had guaranteed, 100% accurate, absolutely-positively-this-is-gonna-happen you-heard-it-here-first inside dope for an unimpeachable source very close to the governor -- and printed it -- the very opposite occurred.

Undaunted by past train wrecks, I'll try it again.

Source #1: This is from a mid-level government lawyer. All state government offices have been ordered to get their affairs in shape along with official inventories of everything in those offices. They have been told that there will be an orderly handover of power sometime around the 15th of December.

Why that date?. The 2nd of December will mark the completion of Governor Ulises Ruiz Ortiz's second full year in office. According to the state's constitution, if he were to leave office prior to that date, the state's Congress would choose an interim governor and then schedule a new election. The political climate here being what it is, the PRD would no doubt win a new gubernatorial vote. The PRI and the PAN shudder at this thought.

After two full years in office, however, the Congress may choose a replacement governor who would then fill out the rest of the normal term. The PRI and the PAN would have enough votes between them to elect a successor of their choosing (after much negotiation, passing of favors and cash, of course). While the PRD would be jumping up and down and squawking about how unfair all this would be, I would remind my readers that Gabino Cue, Governor Ruiz Ortiz's opponent in the last election, was a candidate supported jointly against Ruiz Ortiz by a PAN/PRD coalition (after much negotiation, passing of favors and cash, of course). Strange bedfellows politics make, eh?

Source #2: This is the same source responsible for my last prediction debacle. The governor ain't going nowhere. The governor's actions over the past few weeks, as well as those of President Fox and Secretary of the Interior Abascal, are all aimed at one goal. That is to keep a lid on this until Felipe Calderon is sworn in as president of Mexico.

Then, Calderon will waltz down here as the white knight, El Cid, the cavalry (not the 7th), Operation Thunderbolt at Entebbe, Juan of Arc, Van Helsing in Transylvania, Aragorn at Mordor, Arthur at Camlann (look it up), Spiderman and Mighty Mouse, all rolled into one, to save the day. According to this version, Calderon will arrive bearing a carrot and a stick.

He'll sit down with all parties and offer his carrots. If anybody refuses, or, as is most likely, accepts and then later reneges on the deal, Calderon sends in the frickin' army.

I report, you decide.

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